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Expected Goals (xG) Calculator

Reviewed by the CalculatorHub team, edited by James Graham. xG sum formula from individual shot probabilities. Last verified 15 June 2026.

Expected Goals (xG) is the most widely used advanced soccer statistic. Total match xG is the sum of the individual shot probability values for all shots taken during a game. Each shot is assigned a probability between 0 and 1 by an xG model based on its location, shot type, and situational context. Enter the xG value for each shot taken (up to 10 shots) and this calculator will sum them to give team or player total xG.

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xG formula

Total xG = xG(shot 1) + xG(shot 2) + ... + xG(shot n)

Each shot's xG value is between 0 (impossible) and 1 (certain goal). A penalty kick has an xG of approximately 0.76. A header from 12 yards might be 0.10. A close-range tap-in might be 0.85 or higher.

xG benchmarks

  • Team xG above 2.5 in a match: Dominant attacking performance.
  • Team xG 1.5 to 2.5: Strong attacking display.
  • Team xG 0.8 to 1.5: Average match performance.
  • Team xG below 0.8: Limited chances; defensive or counter-attacking match.
  • Season xG per game above 1.8: Title contender quality attack.

Expected goals: frequently asked questions

What are expected goals (xG)?

Expected goals (xG) is a statistical measure in soccer (football) that quantifies the probability that a given shot will result in a goal, based on factors such as shot location, shot type, assist type, and whether it was from open play or a set piece. A shot with xG = 0.3 is expected to be scored 30% of the time.

How is team xG calculated?

Team xG for a match or season is the sum of the xG values of all shots taken. If a team takes five shots with individual xG values of 0.10, 0.25, 0.05, 0.15, and 0.30, their total xG is 0.85, meaning they would be expected to score approximately 0.85 goals from those attempts.

Who developed the xG model?

Expected goals models were developed by multiple researchers and data companies. Sam Gregory published early public xG work around 2012, and Opta (now Stats Perform) and StatsBomb have developed widely-cited proprietary models. The academic underpinnings trace to spatial analysis of shot data.

What xG difference indicates a team should have won?

An xG difference (xGD) above +0.5 to +1.0 in favor of one team generally suggests they were the better team in that match, even if the scoreline does not reflect it. Over a full season, teams with high positive xGD consistently outperform teams that rely on luck or goalkeeping.

What is the difference between xG and post-shot xG?

Standard xG is calculated at the moment of the shot based on shot location and context. Post-shot xG (PSxG) is updated after the shot to account for where the ball was placed within the goal frame. PSxG is used to evaluate goalkeeper performance and shooting quality separately.

Official sources

Reviewed by the CalculatorHub team, edited by James Graham, 15 June 2026. See our methodology.