Loot Expected Value Calculator
The expected value of a loot table is the long-run average reward per drop event. This calculator lets you enter up to 6 loot table items, each with a drop rate percentage and a gold value. It computes the expected value as the sum of each item's drop rate times its value, giving you the average value per kill or chest. Use this to compare farming locations, balance loot tables during game design, or evaluate whether a boss kill is worth the effort.
Loot expected value formula
EV = sum of (drop_rate(i) / 100 * value(i)) for all items i
Each item contributes its probability (drop rate divided by 100) times its value. The sum is the expected reward per kill or drop event, averaged over infinitely many attempts.
Using expected value for farming decisions
- A boss that drops 10 gold always plus a 5% chance at a 500-gold item has an expected value of 10 + 0.05 times 500 = 35 gold per kill.
- Compare expected values between farming locations to find the most efficient gold-per-hour spot by also considering kills per hour.
- Expected value does not account for variance: a high-EV drop table with one very rare item may frustrate players who never see it, even if the average is good.
- Game designers add common low-value drops to floor the loot table EV and reduce player disappointment from rare-item droughts.
Loot expected value: frequently asked questions
What is loot table expected value?
Loot table expected value is the average gold (or currency) value you expect to receive per kill or chest, calculated as the sum of each possible item's drop probability times its value. It is the long-run average reward per attempt.
How do drop rates and item values interact?
A rare item with high value but low drop rate contributes less to expected value than a common item with moderate value. The EV formula weights each contribution by its probability, so both rarity and value matter equally.
Should my drop rates sum to 100%?
Not necessarily. In games where multiple items can drop from one kill (each independently rolling), rates do not need to sum to 100%. If you are modeling a table where exactly one item drops, the rates should sum to 100%. This calculator works for both cases.
How do I use this for game economy design?
Enter all items on a loot table with their drop rates and market values. The expected value shows the average reward per kill. Compare this to the average cost of getting to the kill (time, resources, consumables) to see if the reward is proportionate.
Can I include gold drops directly in the calculation?
Yes. Add a gold drop as an item with its value equal to the gold amount dropped and its drop rate as the probability of that gold drop occurring. If gold always drops, set the drop rate to 100%.
Official sources
- NIST/SEMATECH e-Handbook of Statistical Methods: itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/.
- National Council of Teachers of Mathematics: nctm.org.
Reviewed by the CalculatorHub team, edited by James Graham, 15 June 2026. See our methodology.