Select and Ultimate Mortality Calculator
A select and ultimate table captures the fact that recently underwritten lives die less often than the general population for the first few policy years. During the select period mortality is q[x]+t, depending on the age at selection and the duration since; afterward it reverts to the ultimate q(x) at the attained age. This calculator compares a select rate to the ultimate rate at the same attained age, showing the selection ratio and the implied one-year survival probabilities. Both rates are user-editable inputs from whatever valuation table you use, so nothing is assumed.
Select and ultimate formulas
Selection ratio = q[x]+t / q(x)
Select survival p[x]+t = 1 - q[x]+t
Ultimate survival p(x) = 1 - q(x)
Mortality saving = q(x) - q[x]+t
A selection ratio below 1 quantifies how much lighter the recently selected life's mortality is than the average life of the same attained age. The mortality saving is the absolute reduction in the one-year death rate.
Selection context
- Select rates apply only during the select period; afterward the ultimate rate governs.
- The select period length is a property of each specific table.
- Selection is strongest just after underwriting and wears off over time.
- Using ultimate rates for new business overstates early-duration claims.
- Enter both rates from the same published valuation table.
Select and ultimate: frequently asked questions
What is a select and ultimate mortality table?
A select and ultimate table reflects that recently underwritten lives have lower mortality than the general population for a few years after selection. During the select period mortality depends on both the age at selection and the time since selection, written q[x]+t. After the select period ends, rates revert to the ultimate column q(x), which depends only on attained age.
What does the selection ratio show?
The selection ratio is the select rate divided by the ultimate rate at the same attained age. A ratio below 1 means the recently selected life has lower mortality than an average life of that age, which is the selection effect that underwriting captures. This calculator computes it from the two rates you enter.
How long is the select period?
It varies by table; common designs use a select period of a few years, after which the select and ultimate rates merge. Because the period and rates depend on the specific table, the rates are user-editable inputs rather than assumed here.
Where do select and ultimate rates come from?
From a published valuation table, such as Society of Actuaries experience tables. Enter the select rate q[x]+t and the ultimate rate at the same attained age. The tool then derives survival probabilities and the selection ratio so the comparison is explicit.
Why does selection matter for pricing?
Because using ultimate rates for newly underwritten lives would overstate expected claims in the early policy years, leading to overpricing. Select rates align the assumption with observed lower early-duration mortality, improving premium adequacy and competitiveness.
Official sources
- Society of Actuaries: SOA experience studies and valuation tables.
- U.S. Social Security Administration: SSA Office of the Chief Actuary life tables.
Reviewed by the CalculatorHub team, edited by James Graham, 17 June 2026. See our methodology.