ASCVD Risk Estimator Calculator
The ASCVD Risk Estimator uses the 2013 American College of Cardiology and American Heart Association Pooled Cohort Equations to estimate the 10-year probability of a first hard atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease event: heart attack, coronary death or stroke. It applies sex- and race-specific coefficients to age, total and HDL cholesterol, systolic blood pressure (treated or not), smoking and diabetes. It is intended for adults aged 40 to 79 without prior ASCVD. Enter the values below for the estimated 10-year risk percentage. This is an educational estimate, not a diagnosis or treatment advice.
Pooled Cohort Equations
Sum = sum of (coefficient * term), terms log-transformed
Risk = 1 - S0^exp(Sum - mean Sum)
Coefficients are sex- and race-specific
Includes age, lipid, SBP and interaction terms; result in percent
Each group has its own set of coefficients, baseline survival S0 and group mean. Continuous variables are log-transformed and some appear as interaction terms with age, exactly as published in the 2013 guideline.
Using the ASCVD estimate
- Output is the 10-year chance of a first hard ASCVD event.
- Valid for adults aged 40 to 79 without prior ASCVD.
- A 7.5 percent threshold has been used in guidelines to discuss statins.
- Two race groups are supported: African American and White or other.
- Treatment decisions require a clinician and the full clinical picture.
ASCVD risk: frequently asked questions
What are the Pooled Cohort Equations?
The Pooled Cohort Equations are the 2013 American College of Cardiology and American Heart Association model that estimates 10-year risk of a first hard atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) event: nonfatal myocardial infarction, coronary death, or fatal or nonfatal stroke. They use sex- and race-specific coefficients.
What is the valid age range?
The equations are intended for adults aged 40 to 79 years without prior ASCVD. Outside that range the estimate is unreliable and should not be relied upon.
Which race groups are supported?
The published model provides equations for two groups: African American and White or other. The 'White or other' equations are applied to all races other than African American, consistent with the original publication.
How is the result used?
The output is the 10-year probability of a first hard ASCVD event. Guidelines have used a 7.5 percent threshold to discuss statin therapy, but decisions depend on the full clinical picture and a discussion with a clinician.
Is this a diagnosis?
No. It is an educational population-based risk estimate, not a diagnosis or a treatment recommendation. Clinical decisions belong with a qualified clinician.
Official sources
- American College of Cardiology: ASCVD risk and prevention guidelines.
- National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute: Cardiovascular risk assessment.
Reviewed by the CalculatorHub team, edited by James Graham, 17 June 2026. See our methodology.