Settlement Value Calculator
The economic value of settling a lawsuit depends on the full damages at stake, the probability of prevailing at trial, the attorney's contingency fee, and the costs of litigation. This calculator applies the expected value framework used by litigators to estimate the net amount a plaintiff would pocket from a settlement versus proceeding to trial. The same framework can be used to evaluate any settlement offer. All outputs are rough estimates and do not constitute legal advice. Consult your attorney to evaluate any specific settlement offer.
Settlement value formula
Expected Verdict Value = Gross Damages * (Liability Probability / 100)
Attorney Fee (Trial) = Expected Verdict Value * (Contingency Rate / 100)
Net Trial Recovery = Expected Verdict Value - Attorney Fee (Trial) - Litigation Costs
Attorney Fee (Settlement) = Settlement Offer * (Contingency Rate / 100)
Net Settlement = Settlement Offer - Attorney Fee (Settlement)
Settlement Advantage = Net Settlement - Net Trial Recovery
A positive settlement advantage means the settlement offer puts more money in your pocket than the expected net trial recovery. A negative number means going to trial has a higher expected value (before considering risk and time factors). This is a simplified model; real decisions also weigh risk tolerance, time delay, and uncertainty in all inputs.
Factors beyond expected value
- Time: trials can take years longer than settlements; the time value of money favours early settlement.
- Risk: a trial is binary (win or lose), while a settlement provides a certain recovery.
- Emotional cost: litigation is stressful and time-consuming for plaintiffs and witnesses.
- Collectibility: a large verdict against an insolvent defendant may be uncollectable.
- Confidentiality: settlements can be kept confidential, while verdicts are public record.
Settlement value calculator: frequently asked questions
How is a lawsuit settlement value calculated?
A settlement's economic value is typically calculated as: estimated full damages multiplied by the probability of prevailing at trial, minus litigation costs and attorney fees. This gives the expected net recovery. Both sides perform similar analyses, and the settlement zone is where their ranges overlap.
What is liability probability?
Liability probability (also called probability of success on the merits) is the estimated chance that the plaintiff will prevail at trial. A case with strong facts, clear liability, and good evidence might have a 70% to 80% probability. A case with uncertain facts or difficult causation issues might be 30% to 50%. This is a key variable in settlement valuation.
What is a contingency fee?
In personal injury and many other civil cases, attorneys work on a contingency fee basis, receiving a percentage of the recovery rather than charging hourly. Standard contingency fees range from 25% to 40% of the gross recovery. The percentage typically increases if the case goes to trial. The exact fee must be in a written fee agreement.
What are litigation costs?
Litigation costs (disbursements) include court filing fees, process server fees, deposition transcript costs, expert witness fees, and travel. These are separate from attorney fees and are typically advanced by the attorney and reimbursed from the settlement. In federal court, filing fees for civil cases are $405. Expert witness fees can range from a few thousand dollars to hundreds of thousands in complex cases.
Why might I accept a settlement below my calculated value?
Risk aversion, time value of money, emotional toll of litigation, uncertainty in the liability probability estimate, and the possibility that the defendant is judgment-proof (unable to pay a large verdict) can all make an early settlement preferable even at a discount to the theoretical expected value.
Official sources
- U.S. Courts, Civil Case Filing Fees: District Court Miscellaneous Fee Schedule.
- Cornell Law School Legal Information Institute, Contingency Fee: Contingency Fee (Wex).
Reviewed by the CalculatorHub team, edited by James Graham, 14 June 2026. See our methodology.